Okay, okay… So I know that I said Hays would see its first freeze between October 10-22, but as you all know, the weather is always changing, and a forecast is never perfect! Anyways, that time period has been bumped back a bit, and widened back out again…. But before I tell you when I expect the first freeze to be, I’m going to give you a general forecast for what I believe the weather will be like for the rest of October and November, and the first few days of December. Here we go! This prelim. forecast is subject to change. More accurate information will be available as the actual dates get closer.
PLEASE CLICK TO READ MORE
So far for these first few days of October, temperatures have been pretty well above average with highs every day so far in the 80s and 90s. Also, according to our CoCoRaHS station, we have not received any ‘measurable’ rainfall since September 18th, .57″. September’s rainfall total was much below average, at .77″. Anyways, back to the October forecast. I believe we can expect above average temperatures into this weekend, and with a major pattern change, the temps will get bumped down to around average, with highs likely in the 70s. Also this weekend, October 7-9, there are some good chances for some heavy rain, and possibly even some severe weather (chance). This should hold temperatures down a while to around average, some days cooler and warmer. Accuweather.com tonight is forecasting the first freeze for October 13th in Hays, however, I believe that is a little soon. Currently, I foresee the freeze occurring between the 15th and 30th of October, likely narrowed down as more forecasts become more accurate. Towards the end of the month, I still am going to expect slightly below-slightly above average temperatures, just depending on the day. So here is the overall look at October: Early October- Hot & Dry Mid-October- Around average temps & Wet Late October- Overall likely average temps and precipitation, possibly above or below, equal chances.
November 2011 is going to be interesting. I believe we’ll start the month out here in Kansas with what they call an Indian Summer. I mean, there may be a quick warm up (maybe into the 80s???) tricking us to make us think it’s going to be a hot month. This should be over with pretty quickly though, dropping back down to average temps. At this time, I am not going to say much about precipitation for November. Towards the middle of the month, and for sure by or before Thanksgiving, I expect a major cold snap to occur, similar to last year’s Thanksgiving cooldown. The only difference compared to last year is that I expect these below average temperatures to stick around… For the Winter… Yup, that’s right. So even though we are despising these above average temps right now, enjoy them, because by mid-early late November, they will likely be gone. Snowfall wise for November, I would expect only a slight chance for any snowfall to occur in our part of the state, but out to the Northwest and far North, it may be possible, but very little if any. So here is an overview temperature wise for November… Early November-Slightly warmer to warmer temps than usual Mid-November-Overall average temps, maybe a little cooler towards the end of the period Late November- Slightly cooler to COLD temps compared to usual depending on your location.
Now for a quick look into December and the rest of Winter 2011-12. December overall will be colder than usual, with likely more snowfall than usual for most areas in KS (possibly). I am currently saying for Hays to expect the first snow in after November 28th, and before Christmas*Will be narrowed in as the time comes closer. However, if the cold snap comes sooner and colder than expected, with more precipitation than expected, it could occur then. January will be a similar story to December for much of Kansas, Colder and snowier than usual. Also in January, I see a pretty big chance for a major blizzard to move through the area, with heavy snow and strong winds towards the middle-end of the month. Also, I expect more ice this month. February may be slightly warmer, with average-slightly above average temps in the South part of KS, and slightly below-average in the North, again likely above average snowfall over much of the state.
Stay tuned for more updates! This is just preliminary, and subject to change. Valid for KANSAS ONLY! Thanks for reading all!
Cirrus Weather 